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Jan 2, 2013
01/13
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after congress averted the fiscal cliff, strong gains across the board. look at the nasdaq up around 2.4%. high end dividend stocks moving higher. the tax rate more or less stayed the same. cisco up nearly 3%. apple shares moving higher. there is a tech blog that says that apple is working on the iphone 6 as well as new operating system for the ipad and iphone. can you see the stock moving higher. that report helping speculative suppliers moving higher. take a look at nuance. mobile chip maker qualcomm also posting gains up nearly 4%. back to you. >> seema, thank you very much. >>> gold prices closing down. tracking the action over at nymex, over to you. >> thank you. we are looking at $13 gain in the price of gold right around 1688 an ounce and it is near a two-week high right now. keep in mind as we have this fiscal cliff deal averted, the rally is not only if gold but in silver as well leading gains in the metals market up nearly 3% and copper is getting a boost as well from positive manufacturing data out of china. hsbc purchasing managers. that numbe
after congress averted the fiscal cliff, strong gains across the board. look at the nasdaq up around 2.4%. high end dividend stocks moving higher. the tax rate more or less stayed the same. cisco up nearly 3%. apple shares moving higher. there is a tech blog that says that apple is working on the iphone 6 as well as new operating system for the ipad and iphone. can you see the stock moving higher. that report helping speculative suppliers moving higher. take a look at nuance. mobile chip maker...
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Nov 15, 2012
11/12
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can you envision a deal being done on the fiscal cliff that does not have tax rates for the wealthy going to 39. 7? >> yes. >> really? >> the president did not end up where you ended up. he was asked directly is 39.6 your ending point and he was careful to say no i'm not shutting the door on that. it's very clearly his starting point and i would say more emphatically his starting point is the expiration of the upper income. so he believes correctly he ran on that, he won on that, and as he said yesterday even more people than voted for him support that, in the exit polls so that's where he starts. i don't know that's where he ends. >> wait a second you both said something very interesting. first of all the 39.6 is one question. the other is, is it going to affect people at $250,000, half a million dollars, a million dollars. >> i disagree with george on this point, i have a very hard time envisioning 250 becoming 500 or a million. we looked at that a little while ago. you saw schumer and pelosi kind of made some signals. i don't see it and george is right you lose a lot of revenue when yo
can you envision a deal being done on the fiscal cliff that does not have tax rates for the wealthy going to 39. 7? >> yes. >> really? >> the president did not end up where you ended up. he was asked directly is 39.6 your ending point and he was careful to say no i'm not shutting the door on that. it's very clearly his starting point and i would say more emphatically his starting point is the expiration of the upper income. so he believes correctly he ran on that, he won on...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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one of the things in the fiscal cliff is going back to the clinton era tax rates for everybody. now, i know there's sequestration and payroll tax. there's a lot of other things in there, but we did okay with those tax rates. why did we just assume there'd be a recession. >> let me mention a couple of things from the 1990s that are very different from today. first, there was a lot. there was an implicit deal that when clinton raised tax rates, the federal reserve would accommodate that with lower interest rates. you're not going to get that today. we're already basically at zero. there's very little for the feds to do. secondly if you go back to the 1990s, you may recall we had this thing called the internet bubble. that's a big driver. >> no, no. that's a republican's favorite answer. it wasn't clinton. it with us the bubble. >> we -- well, we did have a bubble. i mean that was a big thing. it drove in a lot of revenue. and if you recall clinton's last year in office, the bubble was starting to collapse. >> we had a pretty good housing market, too, i think. >> absolutely. >> and
one of the things in the fiscal cliff is going back to the clinton era tax rates for everybody. now, i know there's sequestration and payroll tax. there's a lot of other things in there, but we did okay with those tax rates. why did we just assume there'd be a recession. >> let me mention a couple of things from the 1990s that are very different from today. first, there was a lot. there was an implicit deal that when clinton raised tax rates, the federal reserve would accommodate that...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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>> as far as the fiscal cliff? >> no, we have time for mortgages. >> i think we have time. the fed has stated they want to hold short-term interest rates through 2014. we know they don't technically control long-term interest rates unless they are buying mortgages which they have done over the last couple years. so, you know, it appears by all measures that you have some time, but you never know because these things can change very rapidly. rates tend to go up higher a lot quicker than they come down. >> you've seen the commercial allied financial where they say the greatest economists in the world and a nobel laureate and do you know where interest rates are going in a year, and he says no. we should know what cd rates are going. >> i think they've done the best they can -- >> what is the maximum amount cd rates could fluctuate in the next 12 months? >> could fluctuate? >> a quarter pobet? >> a quarter point. >> where are they? >> 0.3. >> long term? i saw the ad, i saw a full-page ad in the detroit paper recently that a bank was bragging about their incredible interest rat
>> as far as the fiscal cliff? >> no, we have time for mortgages. >> i think we have time. the fed has stated they want to hold short-term interest rates through 2014. we know they don't technically control long-term interest rates unless they are buying mortgages which they have done over the last couple years. so, you know, it appears by all measures that you have some time, but you never know because these things can change very rapidly. rates tend to go up higher a lot...
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Jan 3, 2024
01/24
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ebbs and flows but the president has enormous tools to impact fiscal policy outside the funding cliffs. year already see tlag. talking to steve liesman about the fed cutting rates. see qt slowing down. tools that could be employed to help the economy even if the funding cliffs start to impose on -- >> back to that. saying that's the president's tool. it's not. how do you expect the fed to react? they sayre they independent nap they don't care about these things. how do you anticipate the fed's going to react in the an election year? >> absolutely. i didn't mean to imply jay spoul t powell is trying to pep the president. inflation rate 3%. real fed funds rate is going up and fed will likely cut interest rates in 2024. the treasury is providing significant liquidity by funding the deficit on short end of the curve. getting a student loan cut in july that is already put into place. all of the president's infrastructure financing comesing into effect in 2024 and doesn't require any act of congress. talking about these tools talking about as a collective group. i didn't mean to misspeak and
ebbs and flows but the president has enormous tools to impact fiscal policy outside the funding cliffs. year already see tlag. talking to steve liesman about the fed cutting rates. see qt slowing down. tools that could be employed to help the economy even if the funding cliffs start to impose on -- >> back to that. saying that's the president's tool. it's not. how do you expect the fed to react? they sayre they independent nap they don't care about these things. how do you anticipate the...
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Mar 28, 2013
03/13
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people worried about the fiscal cliff, higher capital gains rates. much of the money was on the sidelines starting the year. it came back in. that helped to power the rally so far in q1. probably won't get as much as of a tail wind in q2. >> i hear people say it's going to get tougher to pick your arenas. you probably agree with that too. russ, if you were looking on areas you thought would be the most like throly to succeed, wh would they be? >> we have seen leadership at a small cap earlier in the year. i would be shifting a bit to the larger companies. if you look at valuation, the large mega cap look less stretched, more profitable. and consumer names has had a big run. they're trading at a huge multiple to the market. it seems a bit too far given they are just getting back on their feet. >> do you agree with that? people like jim cramer say the consumer is doing well, economy is going along. >> no, i do agree i would look at some of the large cap value companies and companies that have under performed the last year. i think the gains do have a l
people worried about the fiscal cliff, higher capital gains rates. much of the money was on the sidelines starting the year. it came back in. that helped to power the rally so far in q1. probably won't get as much as of a tail wind in q2. >> i hear people say it's going to get tougher to pick your arenas. you probably agree with that too. russ, if you were looking on areas you thought would be the most like throly to succeed, wh would they be? >> we have seen leadership at a small...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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. >>> what are the long term effects for business travel if the economy falls off the fiscal cliff? the gbta predicts the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some places snow getting up to around 2, 3 feet, but that is high elevation. but for the eastern seaboard, pretty quiet p. temperatures very mild this time of year. when you get into the center of the u.s., still fairly mild conditions. a bit cooler as you might imagine in spots up like towards the twin cities and even over towards chicago. but then out west, that's where the trouble really brews. it's that time of year that there's norm lay big area of high pressure that sets up off the west coast. that's gone and that allows all the pacific moisture to come through. high snow will be an issue. rain in seattle. so how is i
. >>> what are the long term effects for business travel if the economy falls off the fiscal cliff? the gbta predicts the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some...
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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the fiscal cliff. if we go off the cliff tax rates on dividends could go from 15% to more than 43%. companies are racing to beat the tax hikes by paying dividends before december 31st and some of the biggest beneficiaries, both insiders and ceos. mickey arison is getting $89 million from carnival giving him a potential tax savings. and larry elison is getting savings around $56 million. thomas frist at hca is getting around $350 million, saving him $100 million. and kkr and bain capital will get a big piece of the dividends. the king of all dividends is sheldon adelson who gets $1.2 billion from sands corp dividend and his tax savings alone could be $340 million. all shareholders benefit from dividends and many of the owners and ceos have recused themselves from the dividend votes, but these companies tend to have higher insider ownership. the average insider ownership of these dividenders is around 27%. it all shows that just the threat of higher taxes is causing companies and people to take next year's income today when they can. >> yeah. it's interesting. we were talking about th
the fiscal cliff. if we go off the cliff tax rates on dividends could go from 15% to more than 43%. companies are racing to beat the tax hikes by paying dividends before december 31st and some of the biggest beneficiaries, both insiders and ceos. mickey arison is getting $89 million from carnival giving him a potential tax savings. and larry elison is getting savings around $56 million. thomas frist at hca is getting around $350 million, saving him $100 million. and kkr and bain capital will...
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Jan 2, 2013
01/13
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the deficit went frabout 1% a yr taken off or applied to fiscal cli cliff -- fiscal austerity. a little bit more fiscal austerity for 2013 is nothing new to this recovery. what you need to focus in is stimulus hitting. we have record low mortgage rates helping refis and housing activities. we still have a dollar now down 10% from the recovery cycle highs and 5% from summer highs. we have gas prices at the pump at their lowest levels of the year. inflation, 2% lower than a year ago. fall. that's a lot of positive stimulus. and china -- >> not to mention the fed and everything they're doing. >> yeah. i just think china, which was a huge problem this last year was weakness in the emerging world, putting down manufacturing sector. now, it's reviving bringing manufacturing back. think about 2013 will be the first year of the recovery, becky, we have rising housing activity and rising manufacturing activity at the same time. as far as this fiscal cliff affecting us, where is that? consumer confidence is at a five year high right now. they're stepping up, as steve just said, and buyin
the deficit went frabout 1% a yr taken off or applied to fiscal cli cliff -- fiscal austerity. a little bit more fiscal austerity for 2013 is nothing new to this recovery. what you need to focus in is stimulus hitting. we have record low mortgage rates helping refis and housing activities. we still have a dollar now down 10% from the recovery cycle highs and 5% from summer highs. we have gas prices at the pump at their lowest levels of the year. inflation, 2% lower than a year ago. fall. that's...
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Nov 11, 2020
11/20
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you now, it came with a lot of other issues he sequestration, budget cut, the fiscal cliff but if it is part of a much bigger package that includes tax cuts for the middle class, you could get a compromise and that was put together by joe biden and mitch mcconnell. so everyone is writing off any big tax increases, but we did see it before. so whether with we can get back to that less partisan timing is unclear of course. >> yeah, supposedly buddies mcconnell and biden. thanks and for more on president-elect biden's tax plan, let's bring in our guests co-leader of pwc national tax office and also served as leader mitch mcconnell's domestic policy director. and also with the seth halen, from the american progress action fund and served as special assistant to president obama for economic policy. so a wish list probably that you and maybe others in your party want but it is up in the air. it does depend on georgia in the is th senate in best case scenario, what do you see biden being able to do >> well, so obviously i totally yes with the agree with the analysis that it depends on georg
you now, it came with a lot of other issues he sequestration, budget cut, the fiscal cliff but if it is part of a much bigger package that includes tax cuts for the middle class, you could get a compromise and that was put together by joe biden and mitch mcconnell. so everyone is writing off any big tax increases, but we did see it before. so whether with we can get back to that less partisan timing is unclear of course. >> yeah, supposedly buddies mcconnell and biden. thanks and for more...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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fiscal cliffy. other stuff. >> call it fiscal cliff? >> fiscal cliffy. >> you have the consumer confidence numbers, they plunged. people trying to figure out, it's not only the fiscal cliff but the payroll taxes that kicked in. kevin ferry saying yesterday, maybe consumers getting hit by higher gas prices, too. combination of things. >> this guy, jeffriey handler, consumer confidence soaring. we were looking at that. i was trying to get people excite good this. jeffries has 3,800 workers. they had net income of $323 million. >> he takes 45. >> he got 45. >> he got more than 10% of the net income. >> three-year restricted stock. jamie dimon got 11.5 million. 11.5 million. a quarter of that -- and instead of 3,800 employees they have 258,000 employees. instead of $32 3 million, it had income of $321 billion. and goldman, 32,000 employees, $7.5 billion in -- net income. and lloyd took home 21. >> your question, is he the most valuable person on wall street. >> in two out of three years, he's been the highest paid financial services guy at
fiscal cliffy. other stuff. >> call it fiscal cliff? >> fiscal cliffy. >> you have the consumer confidence numbers, they plunged. people trying to figure out, it's not only the fiscal cliff but the payroll taxes that kicked in. kevin ferry saying yesterday, maybe consumers getting hit by higher gas prices, too. combination of things. >> this guy, jeffriey handler, consumer confidence soaring. we were looking at that. i was trying to get people excite good this. jeffries...
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Nov 26, 2012
11/12
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cliff resolution and absolutely comprehensive tax reform sometime in 2013, lowering the corporate rate, broadening the base. >> how do you force tax reform when the fiscal cliff was supposed to be the gun at everybody's head? if we say never mind, how do you actually force it in the new year? >> i think that first of all in terms of the fiscal cliff, it's got to be a framework deal. you're not going to get legislation in a lame duck. so calculate what the tax revenue number needs to be. take the president's and you get a deal. if there's a tram work $4 trillion deal over ten year, legislation can be codified and enacted after the fact that solidifies that, then you've bridged comprehensive tax reform. i think the keys are revenue neutrality, broadening the base, eliminating the loopholes, the devil's in the details. but i think there's also recognition that corporate comprehensive tax reform needs to occur. both sides of the aisle wanted to wait until the election is over. it's over. we have to tackle is. >> but now we're waiting again until we get closer to the next election. >> no, w
cliff resolution and absolutely comprehensive tax reform sometime in 2013, lowering the corporate rate, broadening the base. >> how do you force tax reform when the fiscal cliff was supposed to be the gun at everybody's head? if we say never mind, how do you actually force it in the new year? >> i think that first of all in terms of the fiscal cliff, it's got to be a framework deal. you're not going to get legislation in a lame duck. so calculate what the tax revenue number needs to...
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Jul 23, 2012
07/12
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, and if you knock out the top two brackets on the fiscal cliff, what happens? that's a million small business filers with over 50% of small business income. these are exactly what you don't want. it's what i talked to mr. geithner about. he's willing to take the risk, tim geithner, willing to take the risk on the high end rates. i am not. i think this is no time to take any tax hike risk in an economy that is in a growth recession, if not an outright recession. >> joe, you're our representative of american business sitting at the table. >> as far as, one of the things that strikes me immediately is that over the last month or so i know that larry has been bearish but this is the first time he's been bearish in 25 years so that raises a red flag, number one. number two, when you think in terms of the issues going on in europe and our clients ask us about this all the time. when we had our blow-up in 2008 we had 50 states come together under the direction of one government. you've got 17 independent countries with 17 independent perspectives in terms of what's go
, and if you knock out the top two brackets on the fiscal cliff, what happens? that's a million small business filers with over 50% of small business income. these are exactly what you don't want. it's what i talked to mr. geithner about. he's willing to take the risk, tim geithner, willing to take the risk on the high end rates. i am not. i think this is no time to take any tax hike risk in an economy that is in a growth recession, if not an outright recession. >> joe, you're our...
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Aug 24, 2012
08/12
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the fact that we have a fiscal cliff that feel is responsible for rates declining. >> what happens if they do qe3, if the stock market goes up, don't you get money coming out of the bond market and doesn't rates go up? >> a fair point and that's a little bit of what did happen after qe 1 and 2. the problem this time the fed will act with the stock market at fairly high levels. you can argue is the market already pricing in a lot of qe3? if you look at qe 1 and 2, high stress levels the fed acted. you have this relief in the stock market, increasing interest rates. if they were to act now and listen to the fed, they are not talk being about financial conditions as being a reason for them to act. they are talking about the fact that they are not reaching their mandate. my problem with this it's not an interest rate problem. the transmission mechanism from low interest rates to the economy is broken. so i think even if they were to lower interest rates i'm not even sure the stock market will go up as much because i think the stock market should be very concerned about a fiscal cliff rath
the fact that we have a fiscal cliff that feel is responsible for rates declining. >> what happens if they do qe3, if the stock market goes up, don't you get money coming out of the bond market and doesn't rates go up? >> a fair point and that's a little bit of what did happen after qe 1 and 2. the problem this time the fed will act with the stock market at fairly high levels. you can argue is the market already pricing in a lot of qe3? if you look at qe 1 and 2, high stress levels...
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Apr 12, 2013
04/13
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concern you would see a slow down given one heavy activity in front of the fiscal cliff and evidence from regular larry that would have suggested a slowdown. so happy to see loans come in, annualized growth rate. that's a plus. on the negative side, the margin came in eight basis points. a little below our 3.50 estimate. at least at first glance as i weigh all these things together, probably as good as i could hope for. >> stocks down about 1% on the news. you would buy here? >> yeah. one, we're still going through a lot of the numbers as you appropriately noted earlier. two, the other thing i would note, this is a group very, very strong over the last six to nine months. really that's been, you know, in the face of no real change to earnings estimates, which means it's been all p.e. expansion. to to see a little give back that's not unexpected at all. >> scott, thank you very much. great talking to you. we appreciate you coming on so quickly after the numbers. >> all right, guys, thanks again. >> coming up, much more on the quarterly reports from jpmorgan and wells fargo. we'll talk
concern you would see a slow down given one heavy activity in front of the fiscal cliff and evidence from regular larry that would have suggested a slowdown. so happy to see loans come in, annualized growth rate. that's a plus. on the negative side, the margin came in eight basis points. a little below our 3.50 estimate. at least at first glance as i weigh all these things together, probably as good as i could hope for. >> stocks down about 1% on the news. you would buy here? >>...
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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>> to compensate for the fiscal cliff. >> no. >> austerity. >> no. >> low mortgage rates. >> no. what about unemployment? >> got him on the third try. >> that's the one that the fed keeps saying, the reason why it's doing qe. we asked our correspondents whether or not mr qe would bring down the unemployment rate. guess what they said, no. 59% said, more qe, which the fed is expected to announce tomorrow, will not bring down the unemployment rate. which is really interesting, what will help bring down mortgage rates, like carl said, yes, what would help lower bond yield, yes, will it cause inflation, no. a little bit closer right there. so just take this in for a second here. it will bring down mortgage rates, it will bring down treasury rates, but it won't lower the unemployment rate. that's a clear sign that what wall street thinks right now is the problem with unemployment is not linked to interest rates. that's not what bernanke thinks, but that's what a majority on wall street believe. take a look here. we're going to show you in a little bit, the gdp outlook is lackluster. 2
>> to compensate for the fiscal cliff. >> no. >> austerity. >> no. >> low mortgage rates. >> no. what about unemployment? >> got him on the third try. >> that's the one that the fed keeps saying, the reason why it's doing qe. we asked our correspondents whether or not mr qe would bring down the unemployment rate. guess what they said, no. 59% said, more qe, which the fed is expected to announce tomorrow, will not bring down the unemployment rate....
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Dec 18, 2012
12/12
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fiscal cliff negotiations, our top story. now president obama is proposing leaving lower tax rates in place for everyone except those earning $400,000 and above. that's above the $250,000 threshold that the president has been demanding for months, but it is still far from speaker john boehner's request of $1 million. a source familiar with the talk says this is by no means the final offer for the white house. the move by the president was welcomed, albeit with some reservations. we will talk about the latest developments in just a few minutes. in the meantime, the global markets seem to be taking note of the optimism. you can see right now that those dow futures are up by 54 points. this comes after a decent rally for the markets yesterday. s&p futures at this point are up by better than seven points and the nasdaq futures up, as well, by about 17. european shares rising. germany is up, the ftse is up, the france, the cac in france has turned slightly down. but, again, this is a marginal loss of about three points. most of th
fiscal cliff negotiations, our top story. now president obama is proposing leaving lower tax rates in place for everyone except those earning $400,000 and above. that's above the $250,000 threshold that the president has been demanding for months, but it is still far from speaker john boehner's request of $1 million. a source familiar with the talk says this is by no means the final offer for the white house. the move by the president was welcomed, albeit with some reservations. we will talk...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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i don't care what we do with the fiscal cliff. we've got to be realistic. we've got these enormous obligations that are mounting at the state and county level with pensions, we're only exacerbating the problem with 1% and 2% interest rates. when you got an assumed rate of return of 7.5 or 8, you're going 75% in the hole every year on your difference. >> is that the federal reserve's fault for keeping rates low for so long? >> it's unnatural. it shouldn't be -- look, i understand why we're doing it, but the stimulus did not work. say what you will, whatever you want. it did not work. that was, by the way there was a wonderful sign, it showed all of the things that happen in the private sector. look at the amount of money that was poured into these startup companies by the government, bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt. >> if obama does win, what happens? meaning this politically divided partisan rancor, does it continue? do people stop? i can see if romney wins how potentially it could stop and it will be a good thing, maybe it happens, i don't
i don't care what we do with the fiscal cliff. we've got to be realistic. we've got these enormous obligations that are mounting at the state and county level with pensions, we're only exacerbating the problem with 1% and 2% interest rates. when you got an assumed rate of return of 7.5 or 8, you're going 75% in the hole every year on your difference. >> is that the federal reserve's fault for keeping rates low for so long? >> it's unnatural. it shouldn't be -- look, i understand why...
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Jan 3, 2013
01/13
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must do more than the recently passed fiscal cliff measures if the country is to deal with its ratings outlook. the new congress will be sworn in today at noon eastern time. the 113th congress takes its oath with 56 new democrats and 38 new republicans. in the house, john boehner is expected to be re-elected speaker today. a lot of intrigue around that. speaker boehner has already announced one of the first pieces of business for the new congress. he set a timetable to approve a $60 billion package for superstorm sandy relief. the house will vote on friday for a $9 billion down payment for storm-related support to the national flood insurance program. there will be then a second vote on january 15th on the $51 billion remainder of the sandy disaster aid package that was approved last week in the senate. boehner's announcement coming after fellow republicans loudly criticized the cancellation of an earlier vote. >> this is 66 days and the wait continues. there is only one group to blame for the continued suffering of these innocent victims. the house majority and their speaker, john boe
must do more than the recently passed fiscal cliff measures if the country is to deal with its ratings outlook. the new congress will be sworn in today at noon eastern time. the 113th congress takes its oath with 56 new democrats and 38 new republicans. in the house, john boehner is expected to be re-elected speaker today. a lot of intrigue around that. speaker boehner has already announced one of the first pieces of business for the new congress. he set a timetable to approve a $60 billion...
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Nov 27, 2012
11/12
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the ceos have cut the core capital spending orders, postponing them up after the fiscal cliff is resolved. consumers continuing to spend, responding to the fat that the unemployment rates come down, people who have jobs have somewhat less fear they'll lose their job. and spending has been okay on the consumer side. gr do you have two models for next year, one assuming we have a deal, one assuming we don't? >> really about 20 different ones because there are different kinds of deals. i think the most likely case is that we get a fix for the fiscal cliff maybe early january, maybe we go over the cliff for a couple days. and i think the political pressure then to fix it would be intense because of the amt shock. normally 4.5 million pay pay alternative minimum taxes. if we didn't fix this on the 2012 income, what's due in 2013 will be additional taxes of several thousand dollars by an extra 28 million households. 33 million instead of 4.5 million on 2012 taxes. if you're going to file your tax return in january and you expect a refind, if you're in the 75,000 to 300,000 income bracket, forge
the ceos have cut the core capital spending orders, postponing them up after the fiscal cliff is resolved. consumers continuing to spend, responding to the fat that the unemployment rates come down, people who have jobs have somewhat less fear they'll lose their job. and spending has been okay on the consumer side. gr do you have two models for next year, one assuming we have a deal, one assuming we don't? >> really about 20 different ones because there are different kinds of deals. i...
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Aug 29, 2012
08/12
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there's lots of uncertainty about politics, lots of uncertainty about fiscal cliff. why not just wait and do it next spring. >> and it's unlickly that interest rates are going to be any higher. you have an unemployment rate that's stayed sturn only at 8%. this is a different reality to deal with than as a 5% -- >> it really has. i look at the problems with the labor market as being the central drag on the economy. this is what the federal reserve is really focused on. >> kevin, you see that number come out and the future don't know what to do. i heard someone yesterday say -- and the market had to deal with qe3 being delayed. that's what someone said. >> it never really permanently gone or permanently on right now. they can -- it's like a carrot. they can dangle it in front of us whenever we need a little bit of a bounce and whenever we get get a bad number, we're back watching for qe3 again. >> i would say this -- the conventional wisdom here, the hope down here, is that they just get out of the markets and let's take a peek at it without them. unfortunately i don't
there's lots of uncertainty about politics, lots of uncertainty about fiscal cliff. why not just wait and do it next spring. >> and it's unlickly that interest rates are going to be any higher. you have an unemployment rate that's stayed sturn only at 8%. this is a different reality to deal with than as a 5% -- >> it really has. i look at the problems with the labor market as being the central drag on the economy. this is what the federal reserve is really focused on. >>...
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i mean, there's the fiscal cliff, there's the rating agencies downgrading us, there's the debt ceiling, there's the markets losing patience with all of this. there's a series of catalysts. >> i wrote a column on tuesday that said no matter who wins we were going to have a wave of uncertainty, no matter what, because all of a sudden we'd start think being the issues, but by the way i didn't think what i was saying was that revolutionary so it was shocking to me on wednesday all of a sudden this happens. >> that's the opposite of what people were saying. people were saying once you get past the election you remove the uncertainty. >> i thought that was false. >> i absolutely agree. >> there's four ways governments in a short term can influence the markets and economy, one is fiscal monetary regulatory and trade. in terms of the fiscal side unless president obama says paul krugman is the new secretary of the treasury -- >> he isn't running. >> right. >> jack liu, it's already done. >> you're not going to ease more fiscally. the efficacy of mormon tear stimulus is very much in question in
i mean, there's the fiscal cliff, there's the rating agencies downgrading us, there's the debt ceiling, there's the markets losing patience with all of this. there's a series of catalysts. >> i wrote a column on tuesday that said no matter who wins we were going to have a wave of uncertainty, no matter what, because all of a sudden we'd start think being the issues, but by the way i didn't think what i was saying was that revolutionary so it was shocking to me on wednesday all of a sudden...
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we created this fiscal cliff. that's absurd. that's what the government does. get government off our backs and this economy could take off. >> senator, thank you. we'll see. >> the packers. >> still? >> absolutely. >> -- through washington. >> that's what i'm saying. i was rooting for the redskins last night. that was a fun game to watch. >> becky, did you notice, where did we get -- took us that long to find a song called rise above? did you hear that song. >> we did hear that at the beginning. i was talking about spider-man, they sing it through spider-man on broadway. that was a different version. >> can we commission that song? or did that exist in senate? >> it's actually me singing the backup. no! >> i wondered because it sounded like sorkin was the reggae thing. weren't you just in jamaica? >> i was in jamaica. we recorded that while we were down there. >> this is where we come together. we're not allowed to play any beatles stuff. >> we're not? >> no. ixnay on the beatles. >> now i have the kangaroo song stuck in my head. >> why did i think of that? but
we created this fiscal cliff. that's absurd. that's what the government does. get government off our backs and this economy could take off. >> senator, thank you. we'll see. >> the packers. >> still? >> absolutely. >> -- through washington. >> that's what i'm saying. i was rooting for the redskins last night. that was a fun game to watch. >> becky, did you notice, where did we get -- took us that long to find a song called rise above? did you hear that...
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cliff you'll see an increase by 1% in the unemployment rate which means an increase of 100 basis points in health care costs he at aetna will have to lay off people. he's putting those plans in place. >> the numbers are sliding all over the place, becky. on the other hand if corporate managers look at what else is going on in the economy, the election is behind us, we've got very accommodative monetary policy, suddenly we have some level of certainty on the fiscal situation, you could suddenly see investment decisions being made and some of this $1.7 trillion on corporate balance sheets going into the economy. >> dan, can i just make sure that you're saying that this is something that happens if we go over the fiscal cliff and we come up with a better plan using the base lines, not necessarily if we go over the fiscal cliff and stick with those base lines? >> the base lines are the fiscal cliff. if we go with the base line it's not ideal but it's some level of certainty. i'm not advocating it. i think it's messy and no good for anybody. indiscriminate sfesratiequestra cuts in spending,
cliff you'll see an increase by 1% in the unemployment rate which means an increase of 100 basis points in health care costs he at aetna will have to lay off people. he's putting those plans in place. >> the numbers are sliding all over the place, becky. on the other hand if corporate managers look at what else is going on in the economy, the election is behind us, we've got very accommodative monetary policy, suddenly we have some level of certainty on the fiscal situation, you could...
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the fiscal cliff looming closer. that attempt by john boehner to pass the so-called plan "b" tax bill has failed. the measure which could have kept current tax rates for those making less than $1 million a year failed to gain enough gop support to bring it to the floor. they're going to be leaving for the next several days. >>> general electric is buying the aviation business of italy's avio for $4.3 billion. ge is trying to expand its participation in the jet propulsion market. they were once owned by fiat and is now controlled by a european private equity firm and research in motion reported a smaller than expected also for its latest quarter. the stock is under pressure as the company saw its first-ever drop in its subscriber rolls and said it would be changing its fee structure. that is something that brings in more than a third of the nephew. it's been seen as the one real stable piece of that business. we do have the ceo thorsten heins. he'll be joining us in just about 30 minutes to talk more about this. >> th
the fiscal cliff looming closer. that attempt by john boehner to pass the so-called plan "b" tax bill has failed. the measure which could have kept current tax rates for those making less than $1 million a year failed to gain enough gop support to bring it to the floor. they're going to be leaving for the next several days. >>> general electric is buying the aviation business of italy's avio for $4.3 billion. ge is trying to expand its participation in the jet propulsion...
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earlier today on cnbc the co-chairs of the debt commission sounded off on that and the fiscal cliff. an interview exclusive right here on cnbc. >> if we do nothing, next year, you'll have the rate of growth slow to somewhere like 3% to 5%. you'll have unemployment go up another 2% to around above 9%. and 2 million more people will lose their jobs. and we're doing nothing about it. >> it's very serious. i think the candidates know how serious it is and trying to avoid it, maybe in part because it's consequential and the ideas that have to be put forward will be unaracktive to some people. we're in a position where new discipline will have to be imposed, people will be disappointed in the consequence and i think they're going to avoid it. >> amazing television on this network. want to bring in david stockman, director of the office of management and budget under president reagan and larry kudlow is here. david, welcome back. good to have you. >> thank you. >> obviously i think even ryan's critics might argue he crystallizes the urgency regarding debt in this country, maybe better than
earlier today on cnbc the co-chairs of the debt commission sounded off on that and the fiscal cliff. an interview exclusive right here on cnbc. >> if we do nothing, next year, you'll have the rate of growth slow to somewhere like 3% to 5%. you'll have unemployment go up another 2% to around above 9%. and 2 million more people will lose their jobs. and we're doing nothing about it. >> it's very serious. i think the candidates know how serious it is and trying to avoid it, maybe in...
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the fiscal cliff. two former governors will offer their perspective. plus, more on what bank of america's brian moynihan told becky this morning. more "squawk on the street" in just a moment. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. offering some of our best values of the year. i have obligations. cute tobligations, but obligations.g. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your
the fiscal cliff. two former governors will offer their perspective. plus, more on what bank of america's brian moynihan told becky this morning. more "squawk on the street" in just a moment. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your...
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>>> still to come we'll dig into the fiscal cliff with caterpillar's ceo. first as we head to break a drawing at sotheby's in london sold for nearly $48 million, nearly double the expected price, it was sold to an unsided buyer. we are gathered here today to celebrate the union of tim and laura. it's amazing how appreciative people are when you tell them they could save a lot of money on their car insurance by switching to geico...they may even make you their best man. may i have the rings please? ah, helzberg diamonds. nice choice, mate. ...and now in the presence of these guests we join this loving couple. oh dear... geico. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. >>> welcome back, everybody. we've been watching the futures, they are mixed, dow slightly higher but you can also see futures are lower for the s&p and the nasdaq. in our headlines apple and samsung are back in court in a high profile patent case. samsung is seeking to overturn an august verdict that found it guilty of infringing patents and ordered it to pay apple $1 billion. ap
>>> still to come we'll dig into the fiscal cliff with caterpillar's ceo. first as we head to break a drawing at sotheby's in london sold for nearly $48 million, nearly double the expected price, it was sold to an unsided buyer. we are gathered here today to celebrate the union of tim and laura. it's amazing how appreciative people are when you tell them they could save a lot of money on their car insurance by switching to geico...they may even make you their best man. may i have the...
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. >>> coming up, the fiscal cliff, the dividend tax rate, a power company ceo will tell us about his biggest concern if a deal doesn't get done by the end of the year. >>> also, what the ceo of walmart thinks about that, as well. he had really explosive data. mike duke last night. we'll bring it to you. "squawk box" is coming back. what's next? he's going to apply testosterone to his underarm. axiron, the only underarm treatment for low t, can restore testosterone levels back to normal in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18. axiron can transfer to others through direct contact. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant, and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these signs and symptoms to your doctor if they occur. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. do not use if you have prostate or breast cancer. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prosta
. >>> coming up, the fiscal cliff, the dividend tax rate, a power company ceo will tell us about his biggest concern if a deal doesn't get done by the end of the year. >>> also, what the ceo of walmart thinks about that, as well. he had really explosive data. mike duke last night. we'll bring it to you. "squawk box" is coming back. what's next? he's going to apply testosterone to his underarm. axiron, the only underarm treatment for low t, can restore testosterone...
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at that rate, we go over the fiscal cliff. >> wow. jeremy, very quickly. capital gains and the dividend tax increases. you expect those get put on hold or those rise in some way in this patch situation? >> oh, i mean, that's a good question. much more interested in getting at least some rise in that top income tax rate. i think he'd be willing to extend the 15% on dividends and capital gains. remember, however, we do have that 3.8% medicare surcharge for higher income people on that. so he's going to get that as part of it. i think he wants just a little increase if the republicans can go for that, i think the market would respond positively pending comprehensive tax reform. >> jeremy, vincent, thank you both for joining us. >> i have a little clever jingle. i'm going to step out and read this as i rise above the partisanship. the election is over, the talking is done, your side lost, my side won. so let's get together, let bitterness pass, i'll hug your elephant, you kiss my ass. >>> coming up -- i will look at -- donkey. >> donkeys are cute. >> look at t
at that rate, we go over the fiscal cliff. >> wow. jeremy, very quickly. capital gains and the dividend tax increases. you expect those get put on hold or those rise in some way in this patch situation? >> oh, i mean, that's a good question. much more interested in getting at least some rise in that top income tax rate. i think he'd be willing to extend the 15% on dividends and capital gains. remember, however, we do have that 3.8% medicare surcharge for higher income people on...
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going over the fiscal cliff. but bernanke did warn last month that the fed couldn't offset that shock. how small is the risk that they don't deliver what credit markets and investors expect? >> i think it's pretty clear that they will continue with the forward guidance, keeping rates low until 2015, keeping accommodate addition until fundamentals pick up, but also just keeping on buying 37 we expect about 45 billion and the treasuries per month. but this should be pretty much on the cards. i wouldn't expect any change to that. if there is a change to that, if there is an undershooting at the measure, it will be a big surprise in the market. >> thanks so much for joining mess. >>> talks between the white house and house speaker john boehner's office having been increasing. the discussions have become more serious and both sides still face major differences. there's an office peace by republican senator portman in the "wall street journal." while he disagrees with president obama's call to raise taxes on top earner
going over the fiscal cliff. but bernanke did warn last month that the fed couldn't offset that shock. how small is the risk that they don't deliver what credit markets and investors expect? >> i think it's pretty clear that they will continue with the forward guidance, keeping rates low until 2015, keeping accommodate addition until fundamentals pick up, but also just keeping on buying 37 we expect about 45 billion and the treasuries per month. but this should be pretty much on the...
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congress get your act together, do something about the fiscal cliff. let's not give this wobbly bicycle in our economy another knock. >> we'll find out more about this in 2 1/2 hours when we get the headlines from the speech and some of the text. thank you for joining us and we'll talk to you again soon. >> my pleasure. >> coming up the gloves coming off. mitt romney accepted his party's nomination and the democrats plan to convene their convention. platform from charle. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 6 months commission-free online equity trading tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ca
congress get your act together, do something about the fiscal cliff. let's not give this wobbly bicycle in our economy another knock. >> we'll find out more about this in 2 1/2 hours when we get the headlines from the speech and some of the text. thank you for joining us and we'll talk to you again soon. >> my pleasure. >> coming up the gloves coming off. mitt romney accepted his party's nomination and the democrats plan to convene their convention. platform from charle. tdd#:...
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states warning. >> and later on the fiscal cliff, right, for the next of this year? >> who knows. i mean what is also slightly troubling me about the u.s., is that there is this seemingly new, modern pattern where something happens else where in the world and the u.s. seems to share quite quick vulnerability. last year it was the japanese earthquake that had a much bigger impact than certainly i thought it would do and now maybe this is creeping in, but i think it's got something to do a bit more with the lack of self-confidence amongst some corporates about things in the u.s., because there are parts of europe very close to and doing fine. poland for example right next door to it, switzerland is doing okay. it's tough to believe the euro is causing companies to be worried but somt something they easily cite if they want to find a reason to be more cautious. >> some argue health care reform raised the cost of hiring an employee, one of the reasons why we haven't seen job creation in the united states. if we see the individual mandate overturned or some big move by th
states warning. >> and later on the fiscal cliff, right, for the next of this year? >> who knows. i mean what is also slightly troubling me about the u.s., is that there is this seemingly new, modern pattern where something happens else where in the world and the u.s. seems to share quite quick vulnerability. last year it was the japanese earthquake that had a much bigger impact than certainly i thought it would do and now maybe this is creeping in, but i think it's got something to...
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i don't care what happens with fiscal cliff. obviously, i do, but i care how the market is going to react and i'm looking for a full v recovery, back up to 1470. and then if i add that 130 points that we dipped for those highs, i'm looking for the s&p to get to 1300. i think it's very attainable. that would be a full v recovery over the last 12 years from the last time we were at 1500 s&p. >> allen, you're putting smiles on people's faces. let's hope you're right. thanks for joining thus morning. >> thank you very much. >> if you have comments or questions on anything you see here, e-mail us. next, the tragedy at newtown creates a new dialogue about gun control. we'll have former vermont governor howard dean and policy analyst david coppel. and then at 8:00 a.m. eastern, our exclusive interview with david tepper. we'll find out what he's doing after the fed's latest policy changes and what it means. "squawk box" coming right back. if you are one of the millions of men who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting andro
i don't care what happens with fiscal cliff. obviously, i do, but i care how the market is going to react and i'm looking for a full v recovery, back up to 1470. and then if i add that 130 points that we dipped for those highs, i'm looking for the s&p to get to 1300. i think it's very attainable. that would be a full v recovery over the last 12 years from the last time we were at 1500 s&p. >> allen, you're putting smiles on people's faces. let's hope you're right. thanks for...
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bit of fiscal cliff you got in there at the end of the last segment, suggests the caution is the story for the u.s. economy. i would suggest part of that is reflected in the manufacturing number. very weak underlying factory order suggesting as people look forward, a lot of uncertainty on europe, a lot of concern on the fiscal cliff, a little cut back in business investment spending. >> you mentioned watching the program earlier this morning, it is like 3:00 in the morning your time, is it not? >> it's a little after 2:00. it's exciting. we want to get into the marketplace. you've had a long weekend, interesting things are happening. i thought some of your xhengts were really good. what did you say? >> are you going to bed after this or you just come from dinner? >> oh, yeah, yeah, absolutely. >> i want to -- >> oh, yeah. >> here's the thing, if the ecb does detail out enough of its bond buying plan, you said we need confidence here. how much confidence does that provide to investors say we don't have to worry about a blowup just yet in europe. >> i think what that does, as you know, i
bit of fiscal cliff you got in there at the end of the last segment, suggests the caution is the story for the u.s. economy. i would suggest part of that is reflected in the manufacturing number. very weak underlying factory order suggesting as people look forward, a lot of uncertainty on europe, a lot of concern on the fiscal cliff, a little cut back in business investment spending. >> you mentioned watching the program earlier this morning, it is like 3:00 in the morning your time, is...
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cliff. >> you do not like the 20% cut in rates or a figure we can't do it, it doesn't add up but simpson/bowles is a 28% rate, and mine nus 35 is 28. you must be against simpson/bowles, then? >> i think the broad principles of simpson/bowles are exactly right. i believe as the president believes that the national security cuts in simpson-bowles are untenable. they're as bad as a sequester, they would do real damage to our national -- >> how about that? >> plugging the base is exactly the right thing to do and we should lower the rates as much as we can consistent with getting to that kind of balanced budget. i'd be prepared -- i'm not an elected -- i'm not an elected official. i'd be prepared to go as far as anybody wants to go on broadening the tax base, but when you start talking about taking away the charitable deductions -- >> we've got to figure out what to do -- >> got to figure out what we're going to do on the base, how much we can broaden the base and then we can see what we're able to do on rates. let's just start with that 20% cut especially when you're loading on $2 trillion
cliff. >> you do not like the 20% cut in rates or a figure we can't do it, it doesn't add up but simpson/bowles is a 28% rate, and mine nus 35 is 28. you must be against simpson/bowles, then? >> i think the broad principles of simpson/bowles are exactly right. i believe as the president believes that the national security cuts in simpson-bowles are untenable. they're as bad as a sequester, they would do real damage to our national -- >> how about that? >> plugging the...
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because i think that if there's no resolution at all, that fiscal cliff on january 1st is going to scare the stock market, it going to scare the banks, it's going to scare the consumer and investors and firms. >> look, there's no question that it's a good, strong possibility and that's what we're advocating for today. as paul made the point, if you extend these rates for a meaningful period of time but then don't give up on the momentum. look, there's nobody that can defend the status quo of the tax code in its entirety today. there's a real opportunity for to us come together as a country and to come and say what we need is a tax code that makes the united states the most competitive tax jurisdiction in the world. and we've got all kinds of momentum behind that. the house ways and means committee over the past 18 months have held dozens and dozens of hearings to lay the record. if you had to distill it down into one word, it is the word competitiveness. to paul's point, if you extend these for meaningful period and drive ford for a comprehensive agenda, it's where the overwhelming major
because i think that if there's no resolution at all, that fiscal cliff on january 1st is going to scare the stock market, it going to scare the banks, it's going to scare the consumer and investors and firms. >> look, there's no question that it's a good, strong possibility and that's what we're advocating for today. as paul made the point, if you extend these rates for a meaningful period of time but then don't give up on the momentum. look, there's nobody that can defend the status quo...
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the fiscal cliff can't be allowed to sustain itself. we have now just driven the debt position up in the country. if the fed hadn't been buying all of the securities interest rates would be much higher. the annual deficit would be much higher. i think we can't allow that from the point of view of our children we can't allow the debt to continue. i would hope washington understands that. >> we are going to leave it there. appreciate you coming on this evening. we hope to see you in the morning one of these days soon. >> you hear the music and that could only mean one thing. jim cramer is making his way to the set. i never knew -- i heard the old cramer say cramerica. he will have the sectors on the move. a special edition of "squawk box" after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] some day, your life will flash before your eyes. ♪ make it worth watching. ♪ the new 2013 lexus ls. an entirely new pursuit. >>> this is a special election day presentation of "squawk box." welcome back to a special edition of squawk box. we have a huge line
the fiscal cliff can't be allowed to sustain itself. we have now just driven the debt position up in the country. if the fed hadn't been buying all of the securities interest rates would be much higher. the annual deficit would be much higher. i think we can't allow that from the point of view of our children we can't allow the debt to continue. i would hope washington understands that. >> we are going to leave it there. appreciate you coming on this evening. we hope to see you in the...
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the fiscal cliff is a self-created problem. you have hundreds of revisions in the tax codes coming up each year. it used to be around ten. of course you have the opportunity for a genuine reform. we haven't had it for a long time. there's certainly a place where there's good agreement on across on both sides of the aisle. >> john, former treasury undersecretary john taylor. >> if you have questions or comments, sweet at@squawkcnbc. coming up, the we'll head down to the new york stock exchange. that's coming up next. . >>> ready or not, the stock of the day is coming up. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] we began with the rx. ♪ then we turned the page, creating the rx hybrid. ♪ now we've turned the page again with the all-new rx f sport. ♪ this is the next chapter for the rx. this is the next chapter for lexus. this is the pursuit of perfection. >>> welcome >>> welcome back to "squawk box", everyone. the dow futures down by about 30 points right now. jim cramer is standin
the fiscal cliff is a self-created problem. you have hundreds of revisions in the tax codes coming up each year. it used to be around ten. of course you have the opportunity for a genuine reform. we haven't had it for a long time. there's certainly a place where there's good agreement on across on both sides of the aisle. >> john, former treasury undersecretary john taylor. >> if you have questions or comments, sweet at@squawkcnbc. coming up, the we'll head down to the new york...
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we'll talk about the politics of interest rates and the implications for the fiscal cliff. >>> plus we are pulling out all the stops for breakfast this morning, famed chef daniel baloud is in the house, his executive chef olivier kenyon is whipping up famous award winning recipes. >> awesome. >>> coming up, personal income numbers and spending for june. is [ male announcer ] when she takes the starting block this summer, she's not just natalie coughlin. she's every 5-year-old who ever jumped in a pool and didn't want to get out. ♪ every coach, every rival who ever pushed her. she's the tip of a spear that goes all the way back to the beginning. it's amazing how far you can go with a little help along the way. td ameritrade. proud sponsor of the 2012 u.s. olympic team. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." june personal income up 0.5%. spending, gooseegg, unchanged. if we look at last month's, up 0.3, originally released 0.2% and down 0.1 on spending unchanged as well. i don't mind this dynamic. income moving higher, spending a bit flat. maybe there's a little saving going on. but i'll te
we'll talk about the politics of interest rates and the implications for the fiscal cliff. >>> plus we are pulling out all the stops for breakfast this morning, famed chef daniel baloud is in the house, his executive chef olivier kenyon is whipping up famous award winning recipes. >> awesome. >>> coming up, personal income numbers and spending for june. is [ male announcer ] when she takes the starting block this summer, she's not just natalie coughlin. she's every...
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not in the health and maturity -- >> not the fiscal cliff? >> no, i'm just talking about interest rates. >> anything happening if we go through? you know it's coming up, monday is new year's eve. >> it will hurt the economy which will hurt banks. but banks have rallied, i think, mostly because of the fed. they have cash flow, they were underperforming assets. allocations were very low on financials. so we've come back. that's the first point. but i really don't see huge volume growth in the industry. if we have mid single digit revenue growth next year for all banks, that would be good. i think credit costs will keep coming down. that's what's been driving the increase in operating margins in the industry. just falling -- go when does that reverse itself? >> well, i don't think it does. we're at about 1.1% charge off the total loans. it was twice that a year ago. we have peaked up in the fours. so we're in much better shape. but remember the industry is only making 1% return on assets. most banks are 70% to 80% loan. so if you're still chargi
not in the health and maturity -- >> not the fiscal cliff? >> no, i'm just talking about interest rates. >> anything happening if we go through? you know it's coming up, monday is new year's eve. >> it will hurt the economy which will hurt banks. but banks have rallied, i think, mostly because of the fed. they have cash flow, they were underperforming assets. allocations were very low on financials. so we've come back. that's the first point. but i really don't see huge...
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Jun 4, 2012
06/12
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and peter fisher will join us to talk about jobs, the european debt crisis and looming fiscal cliff. stick around. >> if you're just tuning in, you're two hours too late. >> all of the uncertainty has pushed companies i think into a much more conservative mode. >> it's across the globe and i think it's a clear wake-up call that compared to two months ago i think investors do realize the urgency and need for actions. >> the ecb should insure all the deposits of the major banks in the eurozone. just like bernanke did after the lehman crisis in the u.s. >> i'm convinced that europe is actually in a recession today, if you add every country. and i think there is a very meaningful and more substantial slowdown in china than the official statistics would suggest. >> there is blowout consensus one of the reasons for the weakness in the economy is the huge level of inequality that emerged in the years before the crisis. xx >>> stocks sliding after friday's dismal jobs report. >> the flight to safety. the yield on the ten-year treasury dropping below 1.5%. >> the ten-year down, the dow is dow
and peter fisher will join us to talk about jobs, the european debt crisis and looming fiscal cliff. stick around. >> if you're just tuning in, you're two hours too late. >> all of the uncertainty has pushed companies i think into a much more conservative mode. >> it's across the globe and i think it's a clear wake-up call that compared to two months ago i think investors do realize the urgency and need for actions. >> the ecb should insure all the deposits of the major...
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Nov 19, 2012
11/12
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. >> that's not even a fiscal cliff issue. they're going up no matter what. >> but i actually think that that issue of the taxes and locking in lower rates right now is more reason for why the market went down than the cliff itself. >> why would the corporate managers just be pulling back? >> well, you actually outside of housing, that's happened even beforehand. i mean, with weak demand, gdp going up at 2%, they tonight see a lot of need for increased capacity at this time. i think a lot of that is the pulling back. until we see a stronger economy and stronger consumer growth, why increase capacity. not enough people will buy it. >> but you think this is happening in spite of the fiscal cliff, not because of it? >> i think a lot of it -- and we're still in a slow mode. i think we'll accelerate next year. i think we have the ingredients to do that. we're finally getting the housing on track which is so very important. >> so does the pull back represent -- is it attached to anything? are you buying right now? >> i would say yes
. >> that's not even a fiscal cliff issue. they're going up no matter what. >> but i actually think that that issue of the taxes and locking in lower rates right now is more reason for why the market went down than the cliff itself. >> why would the corporate managers just be pulling back? >> well, you actually outside of housing, that's happened even beforehand. i mean, with weak demand, gdp going up at 2%, they tonight see a lot of need for increased capacity at this...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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in your view would it be better to go over the fiscal cliff than to get the back to the clinton rates on the high end? >> i think the best thing we don't go over the fiscal cliff. >> you do? you'd rather do some kind of deal? >> yes, i'd rather -- that's why we proposed from right after the election. everything we've heard from the other side has been silent until yesterday -- >> like we said, no way, unless we go to 39.6 on the top 2%. would you vote no to that and go over the cliff? >> look, he's not -- i'm not going to negotiate right here on the tv. i'd rather sit and negotiate with them. but the one thing i will tell you, what they're asking for is revenue. republicans have put revenue on the table. the president's own words a year ago in 2011 said he could get $1.2 without raising any taxes. and think for a moment, if you close loopholes you get a fairer process. for those who don't have lobbyists, or high-priced attorneys or accountants, they get a very fair system. and no longer are we making an investment based upon what the irs code is, it's based upon what the economics sho
in your view would it be better to go over the fiscal cliff than to get the back to the clinton rates on the high end? >> i think the best thing we don't go over the fiscal cliff. >> you do? you'd rather do some kind of deal? >> yes, i'd rather -- that's why we proposed from right after the election. everything we've heard from the other side has been silent until yesterday -- >> like we said, no way, unless we go to 39.6 on the top 2%. would you vote no to that and go...
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Nov 20, 2012
11/12
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. >> we'll come back and get your ideas on what we do to fix this fiscal cliff. i change every day on what i think we need to do. i don't know. let's say we got rid of the sequester completely and didn't worry about spending, went back to the clinton tax rates for everybody. is that the end of the world? >> i wouldn't think so. >> three-quarters of the deficit goes away. >> i think we'd probably have to deal with some of the investment income rates perhaps. >> you're talking from the republican side. >> no, i think we find ourselves at a different moment. i don't think it would be the end of the world but i think we can probably find a more sustainable way to do it, to not push. >> where were the investment rates, capital rates and dividends under clinton, 25? brings it up 20% higher? >> we're in the no huddle offense for congress and we don't have a good track record. congress has not performed well with this president in the no huddle offense. we have two minutes and got to score a touchdown. >> the reason they put in these things were to make sure they finally
. >> we'll come back and get your ideas on what we do to fix this fiscal cliff. i change every day on what i think we need to do. i don't know. let's say we got rid of the sequester completely and didn't worry about spending, went back to the clinton tax rates for everybody. is that the end of the world? >> i wouldn't think so. >> three-quarters of the deficit goes away. >> i think we'd probably have to deal with some of the investment income rates perhaps. >>...
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Dec 19, 2012
12/12
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there's a lot of talk that they are moving closer to some sort of an agreement over the fiscal cliff. now you also have this plan b that boehner has come up with. this is going to be something where in his idea they would raise -- they would keep tax rates low, keep the same tax rates on anybody who's making a million dollars or less. >> the rest -- >> the plan in the senate is for $250,000 and below. the president has talked about $400,000 and below. but this plan b is interesting because it does keep the sequestration cuts in place. >> we've got to deal with -- >> the $1.2 trillion in cuts, more than the president is offering. this is something that harry reid said will not pass the senate. obviously this is a lot of the political maneuvering that takes play ahead of time as they continue negotiations. >> huey lewis had an album and song called "plan b." i think whenever we saw "plan b" that we should play. it it was called "plan b." is it ready yet? i don't think -- we'll get it. >> i took the kids to see "spiderman" on broadway. "rise above" is the theme song. did you remember tha
there's a lot of talk that they are moving closer to some sort of an agreement over the fiscal cliff. now you also have this plan b that boehner has come up with. this is going to be something where in his idea they would raise -- they would keep tax rates low, keep the same tax rates on anybody who's making a million dollars or less. >> the rest -- >> the plan in the senate is for $250,000 and below. the president has talked about $400,000 and below. but this plan b is interesting...
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Nov 16, 2012
11/12
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if ire worried we go over the fiscal cliff and we get our ratings downgraded again -- >> ever since the election, i keep trying to just focus right on what we're talking about and that is this high end marginal rates on the 250 and above. obama has at this point said that so much times that, i don't know, he's kind of like drawing a line in the sand there. >> oh, yeah. >> we decided yesterday that was one thing that he is at 250 and 39.6. >> i'm still not convinced it's 39.6%. i do think 250 is the line. >> i don't think we're 35% and trying to find deductions anymore. >> the house was 55% stayed republican. so they have the same claim that their constituents elected them to hold the line on this. i saw comments from dave camp that this game that he keeps playing with, i've got the pen, i'm ready to sign it, it's just delaying. it's a nonstarter according to the people that stopped it the last intwo years. >> today is the first day that they'll all be meeting at the white house. and today is the first day that we don't know what's going to happen. >> the issues are so big in terms of en
if ire worried we go over the fiscal cliff and we get our ratings downgraded again -- >> ever since the election, i keep trying to just focus right on what we're talking about and that is this high end marginal rates on the 250 and above. obama has at this point said that so much times that, i don't know, he's kind of like drawing a line in the sand there. >> oh, yeah. >> we decided yesterday that was one thing that he is at 250 and 39.6. >> i'm still not convinced it's...
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May 11, 2012
05/12
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cliff is coming. that's right. we'll we have an interview you're ready for, right? >> our next guest, one of the nation's only publicly traded hedge fund company, mook is principal at fortress. they have $46 billion under management. given the news of the morning around jpmorgan, i wanted o get your thoughts real quick. >> listen, it not good. i think jamie dimon was pretty straight forward that we screwed up. my bigger concern is you're restating in essence your earnings because you had a var problem or a problem calculating your var. so it completely plays into the volcker rule, more regulation, less proprietary trading camp. as that battle get pushed back and forth and jamie has been on the offensive saying banks need less regulation and it might be weight on the market. >> you're in the hj fund world. do you know who was on the other sides of all of these trades? cds positions coming in the morgue and group, that takes a tremendous amount of proprietary risk. is it a hedging business or proprietar
cliff is coming. that's right. we'll we have an interview you're ready for, right? >> our next guest, one of the nation's only publicly traded hedge fund company, mook is principal at fortress. they have $46 billion under management. given the news of the morning around jpmorgan, i wanted o get your thoughts real quick. >> listen, it not good. i think jamie dimon was pretty straight forward that we screwed up. my bigger concern is you're restating in essence your earnings because...
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Nov 21, 2012
11/12
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>> i thought i had to deal with the fiscal cliff, but undressing. >> you will. it's got like a stripy thing going on. >>> let's get an outlook on the markets. right now we have daniel from tjm institute. we've been watching what happens with the futures every day. a lot of concerns about the fiscal cliff, is that the biggest issue driving things right now? >> the fiscal cliff is the driving issue right now. a little fear from europe. the market came off. that is in the background. as long as we're seeing things move forward, but not negative on the fiscal cliff, i think you'll see the market bounce against this 87 and 90 level. any hint of a compromise, yo ur goi you're going to break the 1,400 level. >> okay. 20 to 22 area. every time these talks come in, though, we know it's going to be a lot of turbulence between now and let's say the middle of december or some time, that'd be the earliest. are you following every single trade? are you thinking eventually there'll be a deal that gets done? >> i think eventually there will be a deal that gets done. and i kind
>> i thought i had to deal with the fiscal cliff, but undressing. >> you will. it's got like a stripy thing going on. >>> let's get an outlook on the markets. right now we have daniel from tjm institute. we've been watching what happens with the futures every day. a lot of concerns about the fiscal cliff, is that the biggest issue driving things right now? >> the fiscal cliff is the driving issue right now. a little fear from europe. the market came off. that is in...
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Aug 2, 2012
08/12
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>> off a fiscal cliff. that would make it worse. maybe it drops from 12. >> miles nadal is here. >> it's like whether -- what if bond rates get cut in half. does it matter at this point from 1.4%? >> i think actually i asked a bunch of hedge fund guys yesterday, and they are marginally, marginally more confident. >> a little bit more because it's together. >> it's been so bad for so long, that people are starting to see. there's been some amounts of formation positive. housing. first july was positive. >> i think the whole -- >> i think also -- i'll tell you one statistic that was interesting. one guy that has a fund of hedge funds in credit, 90% cash. >> we saw louis bacon getting out of the market. if you're a retail investors -- we say there's no more anymonth more. to to the extent you believe in the future to come back, and we want the economy to build, i think that's the ultimate cost. >> i mean after the first flash crash after then the bats and then after last bupt not least facebook. what does scare me now about it, is face
>> off a fiscal cliff. that would make it worse. maybe it drops from 12. >> miles nadal is here. >> it's like whether -- what if bond rates get cut in half. does it matter at this point from 1.4%? >> i think actually i asked a bunch of hedge fund guys yesterday, and they are marginally, marginally more confident. >> a little bit more because it's together. >> it's been so bad for so long, that people are starting to see. there's been some amounts of formation...